Mesoscale Discussion 0577
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0508 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Northwest Texas...Western
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179...

   Valid 132208Z - 140015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will gradually
   increase over the next few hours across the eastern Texas Panhandle
   and west Texas. The severe threat will also impact western Oklahoma
   as cells increase in coverage and move eastward.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low across
   southeastern Colorado with a dryline extending southeastward from
   the low into southwest Kansas. This feature then extends southward
   into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle where isolated thunderstorms are
   ongoing. Thunderstorms are also ongoing in the vicinity of Lubbock
   to the west of the dryline. Storm coverage is expected to increase
   along and to the east of the dryline over the next few hours as
   large-scale ascent increases due to the approach of a shortwave
   trough evident on water vapor imagery. This combined with a
   strengthening low-level jet early this evening, should result in the
   development of a broken line segment. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE
   to the east of the dryline in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range along with
   30 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear. This along with very steep mid-level
   lapse rates will be favorable for large hail. Hailstones of greater
   than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any supercells that
   develop. Eventually, a line segment is expected to organize. As this
   line moves eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
   damaging wind gusts should become more widespread.

   ..Broyles.. 05/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35970058 35340110 34140173 33490181 33130144 33100080
               33159930 33519786 34779773 36019831 36499930 36350003
               35970058