Mesoscale Discussion 0580
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
   Missouri...Southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140448Z - 140715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A large hail threat may develop across parts of the
   central Plains tonight from northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa.
   Weather watch issuance is currently being considered.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb low over
   southeast Colorado. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the
   low across north-central and northeast Kansas. Thunderstorms are
   currently developing near the front to the northeast of Salina,
   Kansas. As a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet continues to strengthen,
   convective development is expected to take place across much of
   northeast Kansas. An east-to-west band of thunderstorms should move
   northeastward into southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri and
   southwest Iowa in the 05Z to 07Z timeframe. MUCAPE in the 1500 to
   2000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear of
   30 to 40 kt should be favorable for hail with the stronger cores,
   and possibly some large hail. The storms will remain elevated due to
   a strong capping inversion limiting the wind damage threat.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40099330 39799384 39509543 39339650 39289768 39489813
               39839827 40339813 40689737 41019600 41199487 40839355
               40099330