Mesoscale Discussion 0581
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...portions of western MO...far eastern KS/northeast
   OK and northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141841Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon. The most intense cells could produce large hail and
   locally damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A deepening CU field is evident across the region
   beneath scattered midlevel cloudiness associated with a couple of
   MCVs migrating across western MO and northeast OK. Surface dewpoints
   have increased to the mid to upper 60s F across most of the
   discussion area beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
   C/km). This has resulted in moderate MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
   per 17z Mesoanalysis and 18z TOP RAOB. As temperatures continue to
   to warm into the upper 70s F, weak MLCIN will rapidly erode. Forcing
   across the region is modest, however, the aforementioned MCVs could
   aid in otherwise diurnally-driven convective initiation in the next
   couple of hours. Thunderstorm clusters will be the preferred storm
   mode given marginal effective shear (25-35 kt), but moderate
   instability and steep lapse rates should compensate somewhat,
   allowing for at least a few briefly strong to severe thunderstorms
   capable of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Trends will be
   monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35519325 35609411 36139459 37579470 38179458 38549431
               38759372 38819335 38819282 38699237 38509208 38199191
               37899182 36989171 36569179 36039200 35639249 35569296
               35519325