Mesoscale Discussion 0582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142007Z - 142200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped convection may produced marginally severe hail
   this afternoon. No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Despite dewpoints mixing into the mid 40s F, cold
   temperatures aloft have allowed 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE to develop ahead
   of a cold front moving into northwestern Minnesota. With continued
   surface heating this afternoon, perhaps 300-400 J/kg MLCAPE will
   occur downstream of the low-topped convection that has formed. With
   the limited buoyancy and relatively modest effective shear, storms
   will struggled to organize and persist. However, should a stronger
   storm develop, marginally severe hail will be possible given -20 C
   temperatures at 500 mb. No WW is expected.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48799604 48709427 48209315 47399337 47169436 47509558
               47989614 48579626 48799604