Mesoscale Discussion 0584
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...northeast KS...northern MO and far southern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 142055Z - 142230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
   and hail are expected to develop in the next couple hours. A watch
   will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broad CU field is slowly increasing in vertical
   development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary extending from a
   surface low over central KS northeastward through southern IA.
   Modified 19z RAP soundings indicate MLCIN has likely eroded as area
   temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s F. Mid to
   upper 60s F dewpoints reside across the discussion area with
   midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, resulting in MLCAPE around
   1500-2500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery, in conjunction with an 18z RAOB
   from TOP and forecast soundings, indicate some midlevel subsidence
   could be deterring convective initiation in the short-term,
   especially given modest forcing across the region. 

   Nevertheless, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next
   couple of hours just ahead of the surface boundary. Recent VWP data
   from both EAX and DMX indicate a belt of stronger midlevel
   southwesterly flow over the area, with effective shear around 25-40
   kt. This should be sufficient to maintain organized clusters of
   storms, capable of strong gusts and hail initially. Low level shear
   is rather weak, but any cell along the frontal boundary will
   experience enhanced SRH and a tornado or two can not be ruled out. 
   A low level jet is expected to increase during the evening, and some
   upscale growth is expected. Should an organized line of storms
   develop, this could increase the risk for damaging gusts as
   convection shifts east/southeast across eastern KS and MO. Trends
   are being monitored and a watch will likely be needed by late this
   afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38719664 39319671 39999626 40659516 41079412 41199343
               41279285 41289215 41029176 40529159 40119160 39899193
               39489302 38889500 38499628 38719664