Mesoscale Discussion 0585
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Iowa and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142219Z - 150015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is likely through 7 PM CDT across
   southeast IA and into northern IL. Hail and strong winds will be the
   primary threats with these storms. A watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a cluster of
   developing storms across portions of far southeast IA within a broad
   low-level warm frontal zone. Continued thunderstorm development is
   likely within the next hour from this cluster with additional
   convective initiation possible further east into northern/northwest
   IL. Zonal deep layer flow along the warm frontal zone will favor
   discrete storms gradually growing upscale as they develop in an
   environment characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 knots
   of effective bulk shear. Sufficient CAPE/shear and a well-mixed
   boundary layer below 1 km suggest hail and strong winds will be the
   primary threats from these storms, while generally weak low level
   winds sampled from the KDVN VWP suggest a low tornado threat. A
   watch is possible if trends continue to favor a sufficiently
   widespread convective threat into northern IL.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40089061 40109153 40409209 40589218 40969216 41409189
               41629140 41769070 41768992 41698899 41368851 40758847
               40428879 40288917 40089061