Mesoscale Discussion 0586
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern and Southern Kansas...Northwest
   Missouri...Southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 142301Z - 150100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
   increase over the next couple of hours from northwest Missouri
   southwestward into northeast Kansas. A brief tornado or two can not
   be ruled out. An isolated and more conditional severe threat may
   also develop to the southwest of WW 182.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
   southwest Iowa extending southwestward into central Kansas. A moist
   airmass is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints
   generally in the mid 60s F. A surface trough is located ahead of the
   front from southern Iowa into northeast Kansas, along which strong
   thunderstorms are developing at this time. The RAP is analyzing a
   corridor of moderate to strong instability along the surface trough
   with MLCAPE generally in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The strongest
   deep-layer shear is analyzed across far northwest Missouri and
   southern Iowa where supercells with large hail will be possible. A
   brief tornado could occur in this area especially as low-level shear
   gradually increases this evening. Further to the southwest into
   eastern Kansas, deep-layer shear is not quite as strong. However,
   MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined
   with steepening low-level lapse rates will make wind damage a
   possibility as a broken line of storms develops along the surface
   trough over the next few hours. Large hail will be possible with the
   more intense cores.

   Southwest of WW 182, very strong instabiity is analyzed with MLCAPE
   in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30
   to 40 kt range and the Wichita WSR-88D VWP shows veering winds with
   height in the lowest 3 km AGL. If low-level convergence can become
   strong enough, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could develop
   in southern Kansas. The environment would support large hail and
   wind damage. This severe potential is conditional upon cell
   initiation.

   ..Broyles.. 05/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39389578 38699651 37979712 37659675 37649594 38709494
               40789268 41069295 41139408 40369492 39389578