Mesoscale Discussion 0587
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150030Z - 150200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized threat for a weak tornado or two may continue
   for the next 1-2 hours across portions of southeast LA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show continuous thunderstorm
   development on the south side of a well-established cold pool in
   place across southern to southeast LA. Continued thunderstorm
   development along this southern flank is likely for the next 1-2
   hours as warm, moist low level flow continues northward. Although
   the overall severe threat remains low given modest MLCAPE values
   near 500-1000 J/kg and weak 20-25 knots of effective bulk shear,
   recent VWP observations from KLIX show persistent 0-1 km SRH values
   between 100-150 m2/s2 near the southern periphery of the cold pool
   where new updrafts are developing. This has allowed for a couple of
   transient mesocyclones to develop before the storms are advected
   into the stable low level air to the north. One or two additional
   transient supercells will be possible over the next couple of hours,
   and will pose the risk for a weak tornado over this region before
   loss of daytime heating and boundary layer stabilization mitigate
   the tornado threat. Given the transient and localized nature of the
   threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30039005 29989048 30089081 30379072 30619005 30378974
               30148983 30039005