Mesoscale Discussion 0588
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Western and Northern
   Missouri...Far Southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 150122Z - 150315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
   across northeast Kansas, northern Missouri and far southern Iowa.
   The storms will gradually move eastward and should impact the
   eastern part of WW 182.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing along a pre-frontal surface trough
   from southern Iowa southwestward to northeast Kansas. The RAP is
   analyzing moderate instabity from near the surface trough eastward
   across much of eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri.
   Three clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the
   vicinity of WW 182. The first is in northwest Missouri near the axis
   of a 700 mb jet. This area is slightly less unstable but more
   strongly sheared. Storm mode has mostly been linear suggesting a
   wind damage and hail threat will continue across northwest Missouri.

   The second area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
   central to northeast Kansas where MLCAPE is higher (MLPCAPE of 2500
   to 3500 J/kg). This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and
   moderate deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells with
   large hail. As cells merge and a line organizes over the next few
   hours, the wind damage threat is expected to increase. This activity
   should move eastward across the remainder of northeast Kansas and
   may affect parts of far western Missouri later this evening. 

   The third area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
   northeast Missouri near a maxima in instability (MLCAPE near 2500
   J/kg). This area has slightly less deep-layer shear than further to
   the north suggesting the storms will remain mostly unorganized. A
   wind damage and hail threat may exist with the stronger cores.

   ..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   40879259 40579185 40069205 39169333 37899508 37969612
               38449713 38839709 39369611 39969506 40929321 40879259