Mesoscale Discussion 0591
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150304Z - 150500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should begin to wane across
   northwest Oklahoma over the one to two hours. Isolated large hail
   and strong wind gusts will be possible. The threat should be too
   short-lived to warrant issuing a watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
   east-central Kansas with a cold front extending southwestward into
   northwestern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence along the front has
   resulted in isolated cell initiation this evening from the vicinity
   of Gage, Oklahoma to west of Enid, Oklahoma. This convection is
   located southwest of a maxima  of instability where MLCAPE is near
   3500 J/kg. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in northwest Oklahoma
   late this evening have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range with
   700 to 500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This should be sufficient
   for a large hail threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be
   possible. Supercells should remain isolated and any hail threat
   should be short-lived as a capping inversion redevelops across the
   southern Plains.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36959875 36659915 36249982 35899988 35939854 36159809
               36749801 36959875