Mesoscale Discussion 0592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

   Valid 150358Z - 150600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
   eastern Kansas and western to northern Missouri over the next few
   hours. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
   threats. Weather watch issuance is being considered to the east of
   WW 182.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low across
   southeast Kansas with a surface trough extending northeastward from
   the low into northeast Kansas and north-central Missouri. A large
   MCS is located along the surface trough with several organized line
   segments ongoing. The airmass ahead of the surface trough is moist
   with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This is contributing to
   moderate instability with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   range. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer
   shear with speed shear in the mid-levels and directional shear in
   the boundary layer. The WSR-88D VWP at Kansas City has less
   deep-layer shear but also has strong directional shear in the
   boundary layer. This wind profile will be favorable for continued
   multicell line segment formation. The more intense line segments
   should be able to produce damaging wind gusts and hail. As
   instability slowly decreases across the region in the overnight
   period, the severe threat should become more isolated. But for parts
   of the line that remain severe, a weather watch is being considered.

   ..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39519452 37989651 37219610 37479471 38089352 39149140
               39939101 40389126 40589192 39979361 39519452