Mesoscale Discussion 0593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...northwest Indiana...northern and western
   Illinois...central Missouri...and southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183...184...

   Valid 150606Z - 150800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183, 184
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local risk for severe storms continues, with greatest
   short-term risk likely to exist over central Missouri over the next
   1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of severe storms
   extending from near Chicago southwestward to western Missouri, and
   then west-southwestward from there across southeastern Kansas.  The
   storms are occurring near/ahead of the surface cold front, aided by
   an axis of pre-frontal warm-sector mixed-layer CAPE ranging from
   around 500 J/kg in the Chicago area, to 1500 to 2500 J/kg over
   southeastern Kansas.

   Storms across northern portions of the discussion area -- i.e. in
   and near soon-to-expire WW 183 -- should continue to gradually
   weaken, as they continue shifting eastward into a more stable/capped
   airmass into southern lower Michigan and Indiana.  Meanwhile, storms
   farther to the southwest will likely continue for several hours,
   aided by low-level warm advection assocaited with a 50 kt
   southwesterly low-level jet ahead of the surface front.

   The greatest short-term severe risk -- in the form of damaging winds
   -- appears likely to exist across central Missouri.  Storms appear
   likely to evolve into a bowing band, and shift across central
   Missouri through an amply unstable (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer
   CAPE) environment -- resulting in a more focused corridor for
   damaging-wind potential.  As storms approach eastern portions of WW
   184 over the next 1-2 hours, local areal WW extensions, or a new
   severe thunderstorm watch, may be required.

   ..Goss.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   41488676 40868725 39818854 38259017 37489247 36969478
               37079736 37609745 38229561 38339469 39639316 40569068
               41069050 41488676