Mesoscale Discussion 0596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK and far west-central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151604Z - 151730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly severe wind gusts may
   continue into the early afternoon. Although watch issuance is not
   immediately likely, trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent band of convection over east-central OK is
   being supported by a 30-35 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet per
   recent KTLX VWP. Outflow from other storms to the north is about to
   reinforce this ongoing complex, with some potential for convection
   to develop generally southward along an instability gradient into
   the early afternoon. It remains unclear whether these storms will
   pose any more than an isolated severe/damaging wind and occasional
   hail threat, as the low-level jet is forecast to gradually weaken
   through the afternoon. Still, the airmass downstream of this
   developing cluster will continue to destabilize, and trends will be
   monitored for increasing storm intensity/organization over the next
   1-2 hours. At this point, watch issuance does not appear immediately
   likely, but the severe threat across this region is expected to
   increase later this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Dial.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35739668 35989612 35759578 35549532 35719471 35469432
               34889409 34529453 34379518 34509606 35179672 35739668