Mesoscale Discussion 0600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of west and central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 151930Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop along the dryline this
   afternoon. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main
   threats as storms move eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   needed to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have formed early this afternoon across the
   higher terrain of Brewster County in the TX Big Bend as a subtle
   southern-stream shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. At
   the surface, a dryline extends southwestward from a weak surface low
   near CDS across much of west TX. Cu is beginning to become agitated
   along/east of this boundary this afternoon as temperatures continue
   to increase into the mid/upper 80s and lower 90s and convective
   inhibition erodes. Low-level convergence along the dryline will
   likely become sufficient to lift multiple parcels to their LFCs by
   20-22Z (3-5 PM CDT), and additional storms will likely form along
   the length of the dryline across west TX in this time frame.

   Rich low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8-8.5
   C/km are supporting very strong to extreme instability east of the
   dryline (MLCAPE 2500-4500 J/kg). Mid-level flow may be slightly
   enhanced with southward extent across the warm sector in association
   with the previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Even
   so, effective bulk shear will likely remain limited to 25-30 kt or
   less. Initial development may pose an isolated large hail threat
   owing to the very favorable thermodynamic environment. Efficient
   downdraft accelerations owing to a well-mixed boundary layer will
   likely support scattered to numerous severe winds as storms congeal
   into multiple clusters/bows and spread eastward this evening.
   Damaging winds should become the main threat with time. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will be needed across parts of west/central TX in
   the next 1-2 hours (by 21Z/4 PM CDT).

   ..Gleason/Dial.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29360350 30060363 30990316 32340285 33010236 33770166
               34290092 34640037 34620012 33370011 33289952 33379803
               32589808 31259869 29649998 29200069 29270098 29510131
               29680173 29690223 29460266 29130288 29180319 29360350