Mesoscale Discussion 0601
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle...extreme southeast
   Wyoming...northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152015Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
   through the mid to late afternoon hours. Large hail and damaging
   gusts are expected to be the primary threats. Convective trends will
   be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will impinge
   on the central High Plains during the afternoon hours, contributing
   to gradually increasing deep-layer ascent. Continued boundary-layer
   heating/mixing and a modest upslope component of surface flow will
   also contribute to low-level lift, with convective initiation noted
   just south of DEN. An increase in storm coverage is expected over
   the next several hours.

   Modest mid to upper level flow magnitudes will contribute to 35-45
   knot effective bulk shear values, with MLCAPE values likely reaching
   500-1000 J/kg by afternoon peak heating. Up to 7.5 C/km mid-level
   lapse rates along the Rockies suggest that storms moving off of the
   higher terrain may occasionally produce large hail. Thereafter,
   storms that persist in the weaker low-level shear environment,
   especially from the NE Panhandle and extreme northeast CO eastward,
   will likely grow upscale via cold pool mergers. Damaging gusts will
   be possible with stronger line segments given a relatively
   well-mixed sub-cloud layer and associated steep low-level lapse
   rates.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39250200 38500256 38180322 38240394 38540462 38950469
               39650484 40910468 41920435 42070310 41930174 41430100
               40910110 40110171 39250200