Mesoscale Discussion 0602
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern OK...north TX...and far
   west-central AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 152036Z - 152200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
   in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186. An isolated severe threat may
   also increase into parts of west-central and central AR.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow continues to surge south-southwestward ahead of
   a slowly southward-moving band of storms across central/eastern OK.
   Back-building is occurring on the southwestern flank of this band as
   modest southwesterly low-level flow occurs across southwestern OK.
   The greatest near-term severe hail/wind risk will probably be
   focused over southwestern OK and vicinity where instability is
   maximized and the strongest updrafts have been observed. Additional
   storms may form over parts of western north TX in the next hour or
   so to the east of a surface low and dryline. These storms would
   likely become severe rather quickly if they form.

   Farther east, a severe storm south of Fort Smith AR should continue
   east-southeastward into parts of west-central AR along an
   instability gradient/outflow boundary from earlier storms. Recent
   radar imagery from KSRX suggests that a small MCV may be forming,
   which could allow this ongoing convection to evolve into a cluster
   and persist farther east. Trends will continue to be monitored for
   an increasing severe hail/wind threat across parts of west-central
   and central AR over the next few hours.

   ..Gleason.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35129982 35249897 35139791 34769735 34559590 34709476
               35169430 35199388 35059304 34679288 34269304 33899407
               33799546 33669732 33889881 34439996 35129982