Mesoscale Discussion 0604
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...West-central and Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...

   Valid 152229Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue to increase late this
   afternoon into the evening across west-central and northwest Texas.
   Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over
   west-central Texas. A moist airmass is present from near the surface
   low eastward and southward across much of the southern Plains.
   Surface temperatures across the moist airmass have peaked in the
   upper 80s and lower 90s F. This is contributing to very strong
   instability with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 3000 to 4000 J/k
   range. The WSR-88D VWPs at San Angelo, Texas has 0-6 km shear near
   30 kt suggesting that most of the storms will remain multicellular.
   A gradual increase in storm coverage is expected to take place over
   the next couple hours as cells congeal and a large MCS organizes.
   This MCS will move eastward across northwest and west-central Texas.
   The instability combined with steep lapse rates should be favorable
   for isolated large hail with the stronger updrafts. As the MCS grows
   upscale, the wind damage threat should increase especially with
   well-formed intense line segments.

   ..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32849820 33529796 33929825 34129895 34009961 33670013
               33070098 32510151 31970191 31670202 31260201 30860190
               30520195 30280176 30160142 30080102 29900058 29889986
               30349904 31629865 32849820