Mesoscale Discussion 0605
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern New York...southern Vermont...southwest New
   Hampshire...and western Massachusetts

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...

   Valid 152259Z - 160100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest near-term threat for damaging winds, and
   potentially a brief tornado, will reside across far eastern New York
   state and into southern Vermont and New Hampshire for the next
   couple of hours. A severe wind threat should persist across
   southeast New York state and into far western Massachusetts in the
   coming hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a well-organized squall
   line moving eastward across east-central NY and into southern VT.
   Recent visible/IR satellite imagery and lightning data suggest the
   northern segment of this line has experienced a recent
   intensification as it moves into southern VT at around 45 knots.
   These trends, coupled with a supportive environment of 500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear, suggest that this
   northern segment will continue to pose the greatest near-term risk
   for severe wind within the next couple of hours as it moves through
   southern VT and NH before reaching the NH/MA/ME coastal region. 

   Along the southern extent of the line, weaker bulk shear values and
   slightly less favorable instability will hinder a more robust severe
   threat as the line continues east towards western MA. However,
   localized bowing segments remain possible due to strong low level
   shear and steep 7-8 C/km low level lapse rates. Additionally,
   several proximity radar VWPs show ample 0-3 km bulk shear between
   35-45 knots oriented roughly perpendicular to the squall line,
   suggesting that a brief QLCS tornado or two remain possible along
   the line where favorable shear/line orientations can occur.

   ..Moore.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43137402 43427330 43347221 43137129 42527139 42217244
               41857346 41867402 41927460 42337470 43137402