Mesoscale Discussion 0606
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania and western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152347Z - 160045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible with any
   thunderstorm that can become linearly organized along a cold frontal
   zone across northern Pennsylvania and western New York.

   DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show a gradual
   increase in convective activity along a cold frontal zone draped
   across western NY and into north/northwestern PA. Although this
   region has already experienced one round of convection that has
   reduced lapse rates and cooled surface temperatures into the 60s,
   satellite trends show developing convective updrafts while recent
   RAP forecast soundings suggest roughly 500 MLCAPE remains in place.
   Additionally, KCCX radar trends suggest a few storms are beginning
   to organize into more linear structures given the strong mid-level
   flow and 30-40 knot effective bulk shear. If these storms can
   continue to become organized into linear segments they will pose a
   threat for sporadic damaging winds as they move eastward along the
   PA/NY border region. Due to the limited convective environment and
   expected isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not expected at
   this time.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41417950 42037839 42307722 42407554 42137493 41697517
               41367593 41177709 41107883 41137934 41417950