Mesoscale Discussion 0607
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 152359Z - 160200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
   across WW 186 from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Large hail
   and wind damage will be the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1001 mb low in
   northwest Texas with backed easterly surface winds across much of
   north Texas and southern Oklahoma. An axis of low-level moisture
   extends westward from northeast Texas into northwest Texas along the
   Red River, where surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. This is
   contributing to strong instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
   around 3500 J/kg. In addition, the Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6
   km near 45 kt with strong directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL.
   This wind profile will be favorable for multicell line segments
   although isolated supercells will also be possible. As cells
   continue to congeal, a mult-segmented line segment with embedded
   severe storms may organize and move eastward across north Texas over
   the next few hours. The greatest potential would along the outflow
   boundary where surface-based instability is present. Wind damage
   will be possible along the leading edge of the more organized part
   of the line segment. Isolated large hail will also be possible with
   the more intense cores.

   ..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34269979 33649979 33509957 33559737 33519619 33839603
               34359637 34719796 34749902 34459960 34269979