Mesoscale Discussion 0609
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160118Z - 160345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage and hail threat will be possible from mid to
   late evening across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. The threat
   should be too marginal to warrant weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Terrain-induced thunderstorm activity is currently in
   the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. The line is being supported by
   large-scale ascent ahead of a subtle shortwave trough that is moving
   eastward through the central High Plains. This line of storms is
   located on the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass with
   the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
   addition, an axis of steep low-level lapse rates is analyzed by the
   RAP across the western Texas Panhandle. The may be enough for a
   marginal wind damage threat as the line moves eastward into
   increasing instability this evening. Although wind damage and hail
   could occur with the strongest of cores, the Amarillo WSR-88D VWP
   suggests that deep-layer shear is too weak for an organized severe
   threat. For this reason, weather watch issuance is not expected
   across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35510246 35300098 35280051 35620006 36600002 36860056
               36770259 36540294 36080296 35690290 35510246