Mesoscale Discussion 0612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

   Areas affected...South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...

   Valid 160631Z - 160800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across South Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of thunderstorms moving
   eastward across central and southern Texas, as a large/organized
   MCS.  The strongest eastward push of the convection is across the
   Hill Country, toward the middle Texas coast, though southward
   expansion along outflow is also occurring into Deep South Texas.

   South of the band of storms, a very high theta-e boundary layer
   exists, beneath steep lapse rates aloft, resulting in a strongly
   unstable environment (mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
   range).  With background flow veering with height across the area,
   resulting in ample shear for organized storms, at least some severe
   risk may gradually spread south of the WW with time.  We will
   continue to monitor evolution, with respect to possible WW issuance
   across Deep South Texas.

   ..Goss.. 05/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27269983 27629896 28179783 29069714 28979675 28159613
               26329752 26089835 26419918 27269983