Mesoscale Discussion 0614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far east-central MO...southern/central
   IL...far southwestern IN...and western KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162038Z - 162315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly isolated strong/gusty
   winds will continue this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
   along/south of a weak front across parts of far east-central MO,
   southern/central IL, far southwestern IN, and western KY. This
   convection is occurring with nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent
   and in the presence of weak mid-level winds. This is limiting
   deep-layer shear per area VWPs, with pulse-type and cluster storm
   modes expected to dominate through the remainder of the afternoon.
   Still, sufficient instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a
   moderately well-mixed boundary layer should support some threat for
   strong/gusty downdraft winds as cores collapse. This wind threat is
   expected to remain quite isolated. Marginally severe hail also
   cannot be completely ruled out with semi-discrete storms mainly in
   southern/central IL where instability is somewhat stronger.
   Regardless, this overall environment appears only marginally
   supportive of isolated strong to severe storms for the next few
   hours before weakening occurs with the loss of daytime heating, and
   a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Gleason/Dial.. 05/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38819057 39219065 39759036 40128986 39978922 39118802
               38458732 37828710 37608721 37448736 37568802 37718918
               37948972 38819057