Mesoscale Discussion 0616
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southeast CO...northeast NM and the far
   western TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162314Z - 170045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong to severe storm or two is possible through the
   evening hours. Gusty winds and possibly large hail may accompany
   these storms. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a watch is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Showers are developing early this evening in weak
   upslope flow near Raton. Surface dewpoints remain poor, mainly in
   the mid 40s F. However, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to
   low 80s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This has resulted in
   MLCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg. Veering winds with height, and
   increasing midlevel northwesterly flow is responsible for a belt of
   35-45 kt effective shear. This should be sufficient for the
   development of an organized storm or two capable of large hail.
   Inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles  with steep low
   level lapse rates will foster gusty wind potential with these
   storms, in addition to hail. Convection should weaken as it tracks
   south/southeast toward the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity later this
   evening as nocturnal cooling results in increasing inhibition and
   midlevel lapse rates and instability weaken.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36800466 37530431 37660421 37750382 37730352 37550325
               36840304 35890287 35020274 34740294 34700388 34950433
               36800466