Mesoscale Discussion 0617
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0621 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

   Areas affected...the Arklamiss region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 162321Z - 170045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development along a warm front is
   possible in the coming hours, but the overall tornado potential is
   uncertain. Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery over the past 30 minutes from KSHV
   show gradual shower and weak thunderstorm development along a warm
   frontal zone that is draped from southern AR/northern LA
   southeastward into southwestern MS. While the environment is
   supportive for thunderstorm development given 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   and 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear, there are several factors
   that have reduced confidence the tornado potential across this area
   in the coming hours (such as the onset of diurnal boundary layer
   cooling within the next 2 hours, weaker low-level forcing for ascent
   along an increasingly diffuse warm front, and slightly more veered
   low-level winds). If mature convection can become established along
   this frontal zone prior to stronger boundary layer stabilization and
   show signs of developing sustained mesocyclones a watch may be
   needed.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32519209 33119207 33669206 33799102 33439056 32899037
               32459060 32209106 32339188 32519209