Mesoscale Discussion 0619
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

   Areas affected...Much of MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171754Z - 172000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind
   gusts and/or small hail are possible across MS over the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows scattered, mostly
   cellular showers within the modest warm-sector confluence across MS.
   Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, as evidenced by the
   lack of lightning and/or more organized storm structures. Air mass
   across the region has warmed into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints
   in the upper 60s/low 70s. Given the only partly cloudy skies, some
   additional warming is possible. Despite these warm and moist
   low-level conditions, poor lapse rates will continue to limit
   instability. Vertical shear is also forecast to remain weak, as the
   stronger low-level flow remains displaced north. 

   Even with this relatively marginal conditions, there is enough
   instability and vertical shear for a few stronger storms,
   particularly with northern extent where the shear is more favorable.
   A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated with isolated
   instances of small hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   34309073 34849041 35008975 34708855 33778831 31388855
               31018985 31259101 33089096 34309073