Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...and the
   northwest Panhandles region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172149Z - 172345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A periodic severe wind and hail threat will exist for the
   coming hours as thunderstorms develop along the CO/NM border.
   However, uncertainty regarding the coverage and duration of the
   severe threat precludes a watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Recent lightning and visible satellite data show
   convective initiation underway along the CO/NM border within a
   region of agitated cumulus near the Raton Mesa region. Although
   these storms are developing in an environment that will maintain
   convection, the environment is not overly favorable for a robust
   severe threat given modest 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with 25-35 knots of
   effective bulk shear. However, steep 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates
   and around 100 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH across northeast NM will support
   a severe wind and hail in the near term. Deep layer flow will favor
   semi-discrete to discrete modes as storms propagate to the southeast
   away from the zone of initiation, but they will eventually move into
   a region that remains somewhat capped per recent RAP mesoanalysis.
   Although continued daytime heating should erode this inhibition over
   the next 1-2 hours, this uncertainty casts doubt into the duration
   and coverage of the severe threat. Given these concerns, a watch is
   not likely at this time.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37190490 37630437 37600305 36950217 35930190 34820222
               34630279 34690371 35400436 36550499 37190490