Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

   Areas affected...southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172248Z - 180045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A sporadic damaging wind threat is possible through the
   evening hours, but a watch is not likely due to the limited coverage
   of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent imagery from KAMX and KMLB show thunderstorms
   developing along a sea-breeze boundary and along the outflow
   boundaries of ongoing convection along the FL Peninsula. Although
   1000-1500 (with pockets up to 2000) J/kg MLCAPE is in place over
   southern FL per RAP mesoanalysis, weak deep layer wind shear is
   favoring short-lived convection. However, steep 7-8 C/km low-level
   lapse rates and 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE may support a sporadic
   damaging wind threat as thunderstorm downdrafts become established.
   This wind threat is not expected to be widespread, and thus a watch
   is not likely. The wind threat should continue through the evening
   hours prior to diurnal cooling and boundary layer decoupling.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28128186 28308119 28088077 27618060 26758019 26178010
               25688028 25448053 25578079 26338088 27228156 27868184
               28128186