Mesoscale Discussion 0624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Illinoise southwest through south central
   Indiana and northwest Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...

   Valid 172329Z - 180100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a tornado or two
   will persist through 02Z with primary threat shifting into southern
   Indiana and northwest Kentucky. The line of storms will begin to
   move east of WW 192 betwen 01Z and 0130Z. An additional downstream
   WW remains uncertain at this time, but WFO IND can locally extend
   farther east through south central IND if needed.

   DISCUSSION...Line of storms with embedded bowing segments and comma
   head structures near the southern IL/IN border is moving east
   northeast at around 30 kt. This activity is developing along a warm
   conveyor belt associated with a 40 kt low-level jet that will
   continue to shift eastward through IN this evening. The VWP from IND
   shows favorable wind profiles for organized storms with 40 kt 0-6 km
   shear and 300 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Instability is
   weak with around 500-700 J/kg MLCAPE. This environment will remain
   favorable for organized storms capable of producing isolated
   damaging wind and a tornado or two next couple hours. However, the
   downstream thermodynamic environment is marginal and raises
   uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of the severe threat. Any
   additional WW issuance will ultimately depend on convective trends.

   ..Dial.. 05/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   37638834 38968766 39788726 39978661 39668630 39278632
               38408661 37568737 37638834