Mesoscale Discussion 0626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 AM CDT Mon May 18 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the southern/central NC Outer Banks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180809Z - 181030Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN HEADER

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very conditional tornado potential may develop over the
   discussion area through about 11Z.  The threat is too low to warrant
   a watch, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The center of T.S. Arthur is forecast by NHC to move
   northeastward and remain offshore from the Outer Banks and mainland.
   While the great majority of the already marginally favorable area
   for tornado potential will remain over Atlantic waters, a narrow
   sliver of juxtaposition may affect the central/southern Outer Banks
   area for a few hours, consisting of:
    
   1) Weak but supportive buoyancy, with modified 00Z MHX RAOB and
   adjusted model soundings yielding 200-700 J/kg MLCAPE amidst
   typically rich boundary-layer theta-e for a tropical cyclone, and 
   2) Somewhat favorable low-level hodographs, with recent MHX VAD wind
   profiles indicating effective SRH 150-200 J/kg that should shift
   northeastward across and out of the discussion area, in step with
   the system's translation. 

   The main limiting factors will continue to be the lack of overall
   convective organization and related modest low-level convergence in
   the more-favored middle-outer downshear (north to northeast) sector.
   This has suppressed development and maintenance of robust
   supercellular convective modes, though a few weak areas of
   cell-scale horizontal shear have been noted in radar velocity
   presentations. As the morning progresses beyond about 11Z, the deep
   flow over the discussion area will back and the low-level
   shear/hodograph size will diminish, reducing the threat from west to
   east.

   ..Edwards.. 05/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34647660 35007631 35327559 35537547 35227551 35147579
               34997609 34647642 34497648 34647660