Mesoscale Discussion 0628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Southern OH...Central/Eastern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181746Z - 181945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind gusts will
   exist from central KY into central OH this afternoon. A watch will
   likely be needed to cover this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front roughly
   from DAY southwestward through central KY. Portion of this cold
   front also extends back north-northwestward, where it intersects a
   warm front in far northwest OH (near DFI). This warm front then arcs
   east-northeastward from there across far northern OH into
   west-central PA. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
   cold front in central KY, where a slightly more warm and buoyant air
   mass resides. Lightning trends suggest some variance in updraft
   strength is occurring, which fits well with expectations given the
   poor lapse rates and perhaps weak convective inhibition still in
   place.  

   Given the abundant cloud cover, the instability is generally
   expected to stay modest (i.e. MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg). However,
   pockets of better insolation could lead to locally warmer surface
   temperatures and higher instability. A belt of stronger low-level
   flow exists just ahead of the front, from roughly north-central KY
   through central OH. This stronger flow coupled with more southerly
   and perhaps southeasterly surface winds will support enough
   low-level vertical shear for some tornado threat with the stronger,
   more persistent storms. Damaging wind gusts are also possible with
   the more organized line segments. Convective trends will be
   monitored closely and a watch will likely be needed.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37358562 39368451 40358381 40328265 39338242 37408321
               36748445 37358562