Mesoscale Discussion 0629
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of far southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181823Z - 182000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief instance of
   marginally severe hail are possible with some of the stronger storms
   over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have recently developed across
   southern Florida over the past few hours, south of a slowly
   southward sagging convective outflow boundary, where earlier day
   convection has overturned the troposphere. South of the outflow,
   modest 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a deeply moist and heated
   boundary layer, has resulted in over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest
   Mesoanalysis). 

   Deep-layer flow and resultant vertical shear however, are weak,
   suggesting that individual cells and cluster should be relatively
   short lived. An occasional damaging gust with water-loaded
   downdrafts should be the main threat given 2.0+ inch PWs. Modest
   mid-level lapse rates may also promote one or two very brief
   instances of hail reaching around 1 inch in diameter (as also
   suggested by KAMX WSR-88D data over the past hour or so). Given the
   localized, brief nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...

   LAT...LON   25818167 26518126 26918043 26807998 26387995 26008003
               25668041 25498130 25818167