Mesoscale Discussion 0630
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

   Areas affected...East-Central AL...Western GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181831Z - 182030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong downbursts are possible across portions of
   east-central AL and western GA over the next several hours. Isolated
   and marginal nature of the severe risk is expected to preclude watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows band of showers and
   thunderstorms from about 35 miles northwest of AUO (in east-central
   AL) arcing through far southwest GA and then back into the central
   FL Panhandle. Radar signatures and recent surface observations do
   not suggest this is an organized convective line but do show the
   presence of outflow strong enough to continue pushing
   northeastward/north-northeastward into more of western GA. AUO
   recently reported a 36 kt gust while another site LSF along the
   central AL/GA border reported 33 kt. 

   New storm development is anticipated along this outflow as it
   continues northeastward. The downstream air mass is warm and moist
   with sufficient instability to support updrafts strong enough to
   produce enough water-loading for strong downdrafts as the storms
   collapse. Isolated and marginal nature of the severe risk will
   likely preclude watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32828591 33208604 33688515 33348367 31808317 31048373
               30688473 32278525 32828591