Mesoscale Discussion 0632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182038Z - 182215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts will be possible, primarily with a
   storm cluster moving onshore from the Gulf of Mexico.

   DISCUSSION...An upper trough and associated 500 mb vort max
   currently glances southern FL from the northwest, providing adequate
   upper-level support for an organized, longer lived convective
   complex, approaching far southwest FL from the Gulf of Mexico. The
   airmass over portions of southwest FL (namely Collier and Monroe
   Counties) remains relatively uncontaminated from previous convective
   development, with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted south and west of two
   existing convective outflow boundaries. 

   The northern extent of the aforementioned storm cluster is
   traversing a larger-scale convective outflow. This boundary may
   potentially enhance low-level lift and shear, encouraging storm
   longevity and even regions of brief, transient mid-level rotation.
   Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger downdrafts, particularly
   where convective overturning has been absent.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25718006 25098042 24778083 24638116 24608148 24778146
               25468147 25918181 26108194 26708201 27308080 27008029
               26448006 25718006