Mesoscale Discussion 0636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1204 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern North Carolina...northern
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191704Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out
   through the afternoon hours. The localized and brief nature of the
   severe threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud breaks south of an effective warm front have
   allowed for adequate diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse
   rates in a richly moist boundary layer. The heating will both serve
   as a source of low-level lift for increasing convective coverage, as
   well as increasing buoyancy, with up to MLCAPE likely exceeding 1000
   J/kg along the warm front. While poor mid-level lapse rates will
   limit instability and associated updraft intensity somewhat, ample
   sfc-700 mb veering will promote relatively strong low-level shear
   (0-1 km SRH of around 100 m2/s2 and 0-3 km SRH around 150 m2/s2 per
   latest RAP forecast soundings) in close proximity to the warm front.
   Given the strong low-level shear, the stronger storms crossing the
   warm front may produce a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado.

   Deep-layer shear will be somewhat meager (35 knots of effective bulk
   shear) given weaker flow fields below 500 mb, suggesting that any
   supercellular organization would likely be brief. In addition,
   relatively limited buoyancy will temporally limit the effective
   ingesting of favorable low-level SRH.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34668264 35188244 35368173 35188042 34607913 34107885
               33757901 33557946 33998099 34668264