Mesoscale Discussion 0637
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast New Mexico into the western
   Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191840Z - 192045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated high-based thunderstorm development is
   anticipated through the afternoon hours. A few of the stronger cells
   may produce gusty winds and perhaps some hail.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating along a nearly stationary
   dryline, with surface temperatures reaching well over 90 F, has
   resulted in TCU development across the LLano Estacado. A well-mixed
   boundary layer, with 9+ C/km lapse rates extending up to 500 mb (per
   latest RAP forecast soundings) is already in place. Continued mixing
   and subsequent low-level lift will likely promote the development of
   a few more very isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon hours,
   as also suggested by several of the latest high-resolution guidance
   members. 

   Weak flow fields and mediocre vertical shear profiles suggest mainly
   pulse-cellular activity, with occasional multicells possible.
   However, the deep-layer steep lapse rates and associated dry
   sub-cloud layer suggest that gusty winds may accompany the stronger
   cells given ample evaporative cooling. With steep lapse rates
   prevalent through such a deep troposheric layer, a few instances of
   marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33580236 36440432 36610349 36710284 36530238 36370234
               36290232 35260167 34080143 33840139 33490167 33580236