Mesoscale Discussion 0639
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

   Areas affected...western Texas Panhandle and parts of northeast New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192218Z - 200015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the western Texas
   Panhandle and in the lee of the Colorado Rockies will pose a risk
   for hail and strong downburst winds. However, the threat should
   remain sporadic through the evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity a
   warm front lifting north through the TX Panhandle and along a
   diffuse dryline/lee trough along the lee of the CO Rockies. Although
   deep layer shear is weak (on the order of 15-25 knots), MUCAPE
   values between 2000-3000 J/kg will allow for vigorous updraft
   development that should support a brief window for severe hail early
   in each storm's life cycle. Additionally, a dry sub-cloud layer with
   lapse rates between 8-10 C/km is supporting DCAPE on the order of
   1500-2000 J/kg. In this environment, periodic downbursts with
   damaging winds will be possible. Additional convective development
   is expected to continue into the evening hours as short-lived storms
   develop along the frontal zone and lee trough as well as along
   outflow boundaries from prior convection. However, given the
   expected sporadic nature of the threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34040176 34350257 35000335 35420382 35840404 36730423
               37830449 38740462 39190441 39360378 38900331 37990315
               36870303 36170274 35870235 35420178 34920127 34470116
               34040176