Mesoscale Discussion 0641
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

   Areas affected...western and central Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

   Valid 192310Z - 200115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for isolated large hail, locally strong wind gusts
   and a brief tornado will persist into mid evening.

   DISCUSSION...This evening isolated thunderstorms including a few
   mini supercells continue developing across the western half of MT
   within corridor of deeper ascent downstream from a slow moving upper
   low. The more intense storms are located from near Deer Lodge to
   Stanford and are associated with what appears to be a mesoscale
   region of enhanced ascent accompanying a northward-advancing MCV.
   These storms are also moving through a corridor of maximum
   instability with MLCAPE from 500-700 J/kg. Vertical wind profiles
   with 50+ kt effective bulk shear are more than sufficient for
   organized storms including bowing segments and a few mini supercells
   next few hours, but the weak thermodynamic environment will remain
   an overall limiting factor. A gradual decrease in intensity should
   occur by 02-03Z as the boundary layer continues to stabilize.

   ..Dial.. 05/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   47021293 47911015 47130908 45601069 45331194 45801309
               47021293