Mesoscale Discussion 0642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

   Areas affected...Far northern Florida...southeast
   Georgia...southeastern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201412Z - 201615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
   may accompany some of the strongest storms through the rest of the
   morning into early afternoon. The best chance for a brief tornado
   will be in southeastern South Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...A 700-300 mb stacked cyclone, currently centered over
   eastern TN, continues to meander over the Southeast. Small mid-level
   impulses continue to pivot through large-scale cyclonic flow, with
   one particular 500 mb vortmax approaching the GA/SC border,
   providing enhanced lift and continued convective development. Two
   concentrated areas of convection are ongoing, with the first being
   in southern SC, with the second along the GA/FL border.

   12Z soundings modified by current observations and Mesoanalysis both
   depict buoyancy to be greatest across southern portions of SC, with
   up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted. Over 150 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH are also
   present across the area, with the current buoyancy/shear parameter
   space supporting some potential for updraft rotation. A few
   transient supercell structures have recently been observed via KCLX
   WSR-88D data, and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
   Farther south across the FL/GA border, convection may persist along
   the periphery of a moist, heated airmass. Here, water-loaded
   downdrafts may encourage a few damaging gusts with the more
   persistent storms.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30228370 30118446 30208503 30388540 30648537 30808506
               31608340 32188232 32988165 33438133 33978107 34118031
               33827961 33307954 32528013 31958058 31248093 30728151
               30368265 30228370