Mesoscale Discussion 0646
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

   Areas affected...Far eastern Colorado into extreme western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202051Z - 202245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may become strong enough to support large
   hail and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating and an upscale component of flow have
   resulted in a deepening CU field across parts of far southeast
   Colorado. Capping remains rather stout across the central High
   Plains compared to regions farther south, raising doubts regarding
   the extent of convective coverage. In addition, vertical wind fields
   and associated deep-layer shear are weak, potentially limiting a
   more robust severe threat. Nonetheless, 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
   rates atop an adequately moist boundary layer support 1500+ J/kg
   MLCAPE. Upslope southeasterly flow with ample veering above 700 mb
   also yields curved hodographs, with up to 200 m2/s2 effective SRH.
   Should a storm initiate and become sustained, transient supercell
   structure may be achieved, with severe hail and perhaps a tornado
   possible.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37110288 38410332 39590313 39570249 38910189 38060178
               37270201 37020237 37110288