Mesoscale Discussion 0649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

   Areas affected...west into southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...

   Valid 210012Z - 210215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind will continue from
   Lubbock, TX southward into southwest TX. While a near term threat
   will continue for the Texas Panhandle, the overall severe threat is
   diminishing.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from the TX Panhandle southward
   into the eastern Big Bend region shows continued thunderstorm
   propagation along outflow boundaries from an initial round of
   convection that initiated off a now-retreating dryline. Given
   moderate instability near 3000 J/kg, but relatively weak effective
   bulk wind shear, the expectation for the coming hours is that
   thunderstorms will continue to develop along outflow boundaries and
   gradually propagate towards the eastern edge of WW 196. This is
   especially true from the Lubbock, TX area southward where
   instability is more favorable for continued storm development. The
   severe threat should continue for at least 1-2 hours after sunset
   before increasing inhibition limits lift along outflow boundaries.

   Further north into the TX Panhandle, MLCAPE is confined to a narrow
   corridor along the western edge of the Panhandle near the retreating
   dryline. Gravity waves noted in KAMA velocity data and GOES visible
   imagery suggest that inhibition is also stronger in this region and
   is mitigating more widespread storm development. Although a severe
   threat continues with ongoing convection and potentially from any
   northward moving left splits from west-central TX, inhibition will
   continue to increase and diminish the severe threat heading into the
   evening hours.

   ..Moore.. 05/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33000216 33780210 33840111 33520017 33129980 32219971
               31439975 31120007 30820077 30410156 30260213 30230243
               30550264 31060228 31580176 32180133 32700192 33000216