Mesoscale Discussion 0654
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

   Areas affected...Cape Fear and Onslow Bay vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210609Z - 210715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Transient/weak rotation may occur with more persistent
   storms moving from the shelf waters to the immediate coast.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past hour has shown
   weak/transient supercell structure near the Cape Fear vicinity. 
   Despite surface conditions with temperature/dewpoint near 70 deg F,
   relatively cool mid-level temperatures are resulting in moderate
   buoyancy.  Some enlargement of the hodograph due to
   veering/strengthening low-level flow with height, has yielded
   sufficient overlap of shear/adequate buoyancy near the immediate
   coast.  Given this confined zone of instability/shear near the
   coast, another 1-2 weakly rotating cells cannot be ruled out during
   the next few hours near the Onslow Bay coast.

   ..Smith.. 05/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33957818 34557752 34307718 33567773 33957818