Mesoscale Discussion 0658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

   Areas affected...south central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 212213Z - 212345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms may develop along a dryline
   through central Texas. Isolated severe wind and hail may occur with
   any storms that can become established. A weather watch may be
   needed in the next 1 to 2 hours should storm coverage increase.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data shows increasingly
   agitated cumulus along a north to south oriented dryline in the
   vicinity of SJT to CDS. The increase in cumulus development is
   likely being driven by weak background-lift from a shortwave trough
   ejecting over southern New Mexico, as well as deep mixing from warm
   surface temperatures above 90 F along the dryline. Hi-res model
   guidance shows that a couple of storms may develop in this area over
   the next few hours, though there is uncertainty in the areal extent
   of storm coverage. SPC mesoanalysis indicates an environment
   marginally supportive of severe storms with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
   and 20-30 kt of effective shear. While on the lower end for
   organized updrafts, this could support a few stronger multi-cells or
   supercells this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km may
   support isolated severe hail with the stronger updrafts. A dry
   boundary layer with temperature-dewpoint depressions depressions
   approaching 35 F and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg may also support a
   few severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Conditions will be
   monitored but a weather watch maybe needed.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33330157 33080156 32640148 32410146 32230151 31890159
               31680165 31420160 31270127 31160093 31150062 31180021
               31319976 31549945 32469934 32959935 33539939 33869935
               34019962 34210006 34190051 34090135 33860153 33330157