Mesoscale Discussion 0659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

   Areas affected...Western Kansas...Eastern Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...

   Valid 212309Z - 220045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase this evening, especially
   across southwestern Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Well-defined short-wave trough is evident within
   water-vapor imagery over northern NM/southern CO. This feature
   appears to be handled well by short-range model guidance. In
   response to this short wave, lee cyclone has sharpened over
   southeast CO which has allowed strong convection to form a bit
   farther west than earlier anticipated. With LLJ expected to increase
   over the next few hours across the High Plains into southwestern KS,
   ongoing thunderstorms should continue to expand in areal coverage
   and begin to develop/propagate southeast along instability corridor.
   Very large hail (>2") is likely ongoing with the supercell over
   Hamilton County KS, and hail remains the primary threat, especially
   with supercells.

   ..Darrow.. 05/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36660203 39630195 39639970 36669989 36660203