Mesoscale Discussion 0666
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...northeast Georgia through the Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221643Z - 221745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to severe storms is expected to
   increase into the afternoon from northeast Georgia into the
   Carolinas with damaging wind the main threat, though some hail will
   also be possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will probably be
   needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid day a quasi-stationary front extends from
   eastern NC southwest through central SC and into northern GA. A
   progressive MCV was situated over eastern TN with a squall line
   extending along the southern Appalachians into north central Georgia
   moving east at 35-40 kt. Atmosphere in vicinity of the stalled front
   should continue to destabilize with visible satellite imagery
   showing mostly clear skies across much of the Carolinas. MLCAPE from
   1000-1500+ J/kg is expected as temperatures warm to near 80F this
   afternoon. The line of storms is expected to intensify as it
   continues through the destabilizing boundary layer, and additional
   more discrete storms may develop ahead of the line. Belt of stronger
   mid-level flow with up to 50 kt at 600 mb accompanying the
   progressive MCV should spread through this region. While effective
   bulk shear will not be particularly strong (generally 30-35 kt), the
   environment will be sufficient for organized multicells and possibly
   some marginal supercell structures with damaging wind and hail the
   primary threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 05/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34768341 35288261 35668037 36177813 34907824 33718058
               33878332 34768341