Mesoscale Discussion 0667
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...central through eastern Arkansas into extreme
   southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221702Z - 221830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few locally strong to damaging wind gusts may
   persist into much of the afternoon across central through eastern
   Arkansas into far southern MO. Trends are being monitored for a
   possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Line of storms forced by convergence along a strong
   cold pool is situated from western through north central AR into far
   southern MO moving east at around 35 kt. Downstream from the line a
   stalled front extends from southwest TN into north central AR where
   it intersects the outflow boundary. The greatest surface-based
   destabilization is occurring along and south of the front, where
   partial clearing and higher dewpoints reside with latest objective
   analysis showing 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Instability is weaker
   farther north, but stronger convergence along the cold pool might be
   sufficient to sustain storms across northern AR and southern MO next
   few hours. Primary threat with this activity will be isolated strong
   to damaging wind gusts. A WW issuance remains uncertain but will
   ultimately depend on convective trends and ground truth severe
   reports during the next hour or so.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 05/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34269321 35159274 35989238 36629212 36509066 35719007
               34159139 34269321