Mesoscale Discussion 0671
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0429 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the mid South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222129Z - 222300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A long lived MCS is ongoing across eastern Arkansas and
   western Tennessee. The environment downstream remains somewhat
   supportive of severe wind gusts. A watch maybe needed.

   DISCUSSION...A few severe wind gusts have recently been reported
   near MEM with a long lived MCS. Downstream of the ongoing storms,
   MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG and bulk shear around 25 kt should
   continue to support the MCS. Hi-res guidance has failed to capture
   the intensity and structure of the ongoing convection, casting doubt
   on the longevity of the threat. However, current observations
   support the maintenance of the ongoing storms for the next couple of
   hours, and a watch may need to be considered.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35168712 34888753 34868993 34869036 35219052 35529036
               35659017 35808989 35998945 36008884 35908836 35838791
               35598745 35368713 35168712