Mesoscale Discussion 0672
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0503 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 222203Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across parts of
   southern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours. WW 203 has been
   locally extended into southern Oklahoma. Additional watch issuance
   may become necessary later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1004 mb mesolow in
   west-central Texas. A moist airmass is in place across north Texas
   and much of southern Oklahoma where dewpoints are in the lower 70s
   F. This is contributing to moderate to strong instability with the
   RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The Norman 20Z
   sounding is a bit further north but has about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   with capping inversion near 780 mb. This capping inversion should
   limit convective initiation in much of south-central Oklahoma.
   However, cells are slowly developing near the Red River at this
   time. These cells are expected to grow upscale and move eastward
   across southern Oklahoma and north Texas early this evening. The
   environment should support supercells with large hail. The stronger
   right-moving supercells may have potential to produce hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter. Left-moving supercells associated
   with large hail may track into south-central Oklahoma south of the
   OKC Metro along the I-44 and I-35 corridor.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34959897 34339932 33749923 33379844 33229703 33469507
               33929459 34559461 34979500 35069567 35019617 35139798
               34959897