Mesoscale Discussion 0681
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...central/northeastern Louisiana into west-central
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231656Z - 231830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An ongoing MCS over north-central Louisiana will migrate
   eastward and pose an isolated damaging downburst threat this
   afternoon.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...A mature MCS was noted in radar mosaic imagery across
   north-central Louisiana this morning.  The MCS is likely being
   maintained by mid-level organization and a shortwave just north over
   western Arkansas, with continual redevelopment of storms noted over
   its leading edge near MLU and west of ESF.  Though weak low-level
   shear is evident in the downstream airmass, strong buoyancy is in
   place, with 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, upper 80s F surface
   temperatures, and low 70s F dewpoints contributing to 2500-3500 J/kg
   MLCAPE.  The instability alone will foster an isolated downburst
   threat with convection - with loose organization expected along the
   leading edge of the convective complex as it propagates eastward
   toward western Mississippi through the afternoon.  The weak shear
   and weak organization precludes a WW issuance, though isolated
   damaging wind gusts are possible.

   ..Cook.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32819246 33349208 33659138 33659052 33168994 32378988
               31599008 31029060 30929200 31129258 31489294 32109284
               32819246