Mesoscale Discussion 0683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains and
   Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231918Z - 232115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop along a sharpening dryline
   along the western part of the discussion area.  Significant hail and
   damaging wind gusts are possible with any storm.  A WW issuance is
   likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery indicates an axis of towering
   cumulus along a dryline extending from near BGD south-southwestward
   to near the New Mexico/Texas border south of CVS.  Point forecast
   soundings and objective analyses indicate that convective inhibition
   in the region has been removed, with steep lapse rates throughout
   the troposphere and 50s F dewpoints contributing to 2000-4000+ J/kg
   MUCAPE - highest just east of the dryline where surface dewpoints
   are slightly higher.  Strong low-level flow - veering to
   southwesterly with height - should foster organized convective
   development with potential for significant hail and damaging wind
   gusts with any mature storm.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
   out, though modest mid-level flow may mitigate this risk.  Storms
   should form along the dryline and near the I-27 corridor in the next
   1-2 hours and migrate northeastward, potentially evolving into a mix
   of linear segments and clusters through the afternoon.

   Given the ongoing convective scenario, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance is expected in the next 1-2 hours or so.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32560282 33400276 34570250 35900174 36750132 37140071
               37140004 36809963 36069961 35119981 34129998 33220041
               32660119 32430226 32480263 32560282